With the largest swine herd in history — an estimated 1 billion animals — China remains the main driver of global soybean demand. The country’s growing appetite for whole soybeans (rather than processed products like meal or oil) continues to strengthen Brazil’s role as its top supplier.
In 2025, China is expected to import more than 104 million metric tons of soybeans, expanding its share compared to previous years. Roughly 70% of Brazil’s total soybean exports are now destined for the Chinese market, highlighting the heavy reliance on Chinese demand to support global price formation.
Another key trend: premiums on Brazilian soybeans have increased. Earlier this year, the premium was around -40 cents per bushel; now, August contracts are showing premiums of +$1.50 per bushel. The shift reflects a growing preference for Brazilian-origin soybeans over U.S. beans, which continue to face penalties from tariffs and trade restrictions.
Even with China's population growth stabilizing, rising incomes and stronger demand for animal protein are keeping the bullish momentum alive. For Brazil, the outlook presents a major opportunity — especially with ending stocks estimated at just 5.4 million metric tons and soybean exports running 14% ahead of the five-year average.