La Niña phenomenon nears its end and enters neutral phase

The La Niña climate phenomenon, characterized by an abnormal and persistent cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface, is coming to an end and approaching neutral conditions. The information was released on March 6 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The event began in December 2024, although in the El Niño 3.4 region (area between 170°W and 120°W), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies had already been registering below-zero values since August 2024, indicating the presence of cooler-than-normal waters in this area of the equatorial Pacific.

However, it was only in December 2024 that the temperature dropped below -0.5°C, the threshold necessary to characterize the phenomenon, albeit at a weak intensity. During January and February 2025, this threshold was maintained, but a gradual weakening of the phenomenon is already being observed.

This weakening of cold waters in the equatorial Pacific can be identified by comparing two distinct periods: February 1–15 and February 16–28. In the second period, there was a reduction in the area of cold waters and the emergence of slightly warmer waters, especially near the west coast of South America.

The persistence and expansion of this warmer area toward the central part of the ocean contribute to the dissipation of the phenomenon.

SST Anomalies from February 1–15 and February 16–28, 2025

According to international meteorological models, as announced by the WMO, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to remain below average in the first half of March but are likely to return to neutral conditions soon.

Thus, there is a 60% probability of a transition from La Niña conditions to Neutrality (without the occurrence of El Niño or La Niña) during the March-April-May 2025 quarter, increasing to 70% in the April-May-June 2025 quarter.